Thứ Tư, 26 tháng 11, 2014

Sony NGP aka PSP2 and Nintendo 3DS dinosaurs face extinction from iOS,Android and the cloud




Here at Thegameveda it is time for a sermon on video game industry evolution , a theory if  which if you are still in doubt about go check out Inherit the Wind   if they haven't banned it  where you come from...


The towering giant Dinosaurs of the video game industry Sony and Nintendo are facing off against what they perceive as small furry mammalian upstarts iOS and Android , they have over the last few weeks released the final pinnacle of what they think handheld gaming should have evolved into by this stage in the form of the 3DS and now PSP2 or NGP , all the fanbois and controlled press have been flown around the world and wooed as usual. Whilst in the distance the gathering Cloud looms menacingly over all of videogame kind ... What will happen?Several  video game extinction events are about to happen unless they drastically find a way to adapt to the warming consumer climate that favours the not so small furry mammalian upstarts that are iOS and Android ,it seems both Sony and Nintendo will go the way of the Dinosaur in the new handheld era. And also like the giant lizzards of old they will not see what hit them.... 


The Sony PSP2/NGP and Nintendo 3DS  will fail vs iOS and Android  as the next iPod ,iPad 2 and Honeycombe tablets and phones are released in the coming weeks/months


Handheld Extinction event reason 1 : Sony and Nintendo follow a stagnant hardware release model that cannot adapt to changes in consumer behaviour.


They say it is not the smartest , or the strongest but the most adaptable that survive . Unlike Sony or Nintendo , iOS and Android devices are on yearly hardware update cycles , with sometimes multiple OS updates every year.  

Apparently ,both Nintendo and Sony have thrown everything and the ktichen sink into their hardware but:Whatever the cool tech  you see from Sony or Nintendo at present : it is STAGNANT . Sony and Nintendo will expect to have the same hardware and OS running for the next 5 to 10 years , yes there will be lighter versions slimmer versions , pink and silver glittered versions , cosmetic changes. Meanwhile iOS , Windows , Android , slates, phones PC and Macs are updating yearly !   We are at that unique moment in tech evolution where a handheld device is no longer a compromise or gimped version of a desktop , or laptop , it surpasses them!  The 3DS and PSP 2 are compromises , restricted use , high software cost , and their ownership is now rendered superfluous by the constantly upgraded cheaper , faster , more open , and more useful multifunctional handheld devices that are already in our hands and pockets. There is only so much time to game , are you going to carry around your phone ,slate , laptop, netbook , and 3DS and PSP2 , are you going to pay 40 to 50 times the cost of an iOS game , for something that keeps you entertained for less time , or is just a rehash of an older bigger console game ?

Handheld Extinction Event Reason 2 : Sony And Nintendo have a doomed stagnant self dictated software fanboi reliant game release model facing an independent Free Wild Wild West games development model 



If the handheld portable gaming market is no longer Nintendo or Sony owned , it belongs to millions of independent Android and iOs developers , the 10 billionth app download from iTunes earlier this month is just one sign of the coming extinction of the old Sony and Nintendo model ,  releasing one set of hardware and not upgrading it for 5 to 10 years and  a tightly controlled drip fed release of 3 to 5 AAA titles a year (if that many!) priced 50 to infinity times that of its great competitors.


Watch the presentation and you will see Sony wants to control the way you access content on all your Android devices , something that would threaten the independence of developers , all of whom would have to pass Sony certification . It will be about as successful as the unmentioned Playstation phone.

The casual , kid, girlie , girlfriend , pensioner game market used to be catered for by Nintendo and its handhelds ,  but iOS , Android slates and phones own this market now .  Plus the core targeted 3D features on the new Nintendo handheld are not great casual crowd pullers.

The core market that Sony owned with the likes of Monster Hunter , Metal Gear etc is now dwarfed by the iOS and Android led core games . Dead Space launched on iOS this week , NOT on PSP .It launched for £5.99 not £34.99 that the PSP2 or £49.99 that the 3DS will demand. Sony won't be making a penny from PSP2 for a couple of years , how many billion iOS and Android games will have been downloaded by then, to 2 further generations of devices?Think of the evolutionary change in gaming habits that free or low cost downloadable games of equal and better quality than either Sony or Nintendo's will bring. 

In olden days  Sony,and Nintendo would throw fervent fanbois and largely controlled press a 5 year developed AAA release like Metal Gear or a Zelda , the hysteria would spread and every one would buy a console to play  the must have game so lauded by same fanbois and controlled press. You know in today's game industry the rate of downloading fart apps is greater than the rate of sales of a Metal Gear title ,or any of the other so called AAA titles that Nintendo or Sony are going to rely on . All will be outsold and out earned by games and apps we have not even heard of yet ,many from companies that are complete unknowns , the key is the consumer is in charge in the new video games order. This is the real horror that the 3DS and NGP PSP2 face.


Whatever the pull of a few AAA titles , the handheld market is now dominated by consumer led enthusiasm and evolution ,  the great sellers on iOS , and Android , are made so by games fans recommending and propelling games to the top of the charts . You cannot in a Sony or Nintendo board meeting ,  have predicted that something like Angry Birds would become the phenomenon it has . The old hardware manufacturers hate this . No one can dictate to the consumer anymore, and the number of sheep like fanbois is dwindling year on year  , Sony and Nintendo dictate their AAA titles ,  from Mario to Snake to Uncharted ,  you already know what you are supposed to buy for the next 2 years! 

Handheld Extinction Event Reason 3 : The coming of the Cloud  


Uncle Kaz may talk about cross platform cross devices and throw in cool phrases like hardware neutral , but the point is to lock you into the Sony Playstation suite on as many devices as possible , so you access , have to access your game , media whatever not only an NGP or PS3 but on your previously open Android phone , tablet , or eventually , if they ever get round to it from your PC .


This is an abject act of desperation on Sony`s part , and it misses the point of Android altogether , the millions of developers that follow the Google App dev path , do no need to go through certification from Sony , or for that matter Amazon  or any other third party. The whole kick in the iOS that Android has delivered comes from its freedom as a developing platform. 


You can , even  if you cannot understand Japanese , hear the desperation in the voice of the Sony CEO , as the once hardware and software monopolies , I believe they like to call themselves Platform holders are surrounded Little Big Horn style by millions of independent developers and unprecedented revenue models all of which are totally alien to technodinosaurs like Sony and Nintendo. 


That's the genius of Apple and Google , it was never the hardware , but the software delivery and development model . 


But even the impact of iTunes App Store , and Android App stores pale into insignificance when you consider the changes the cloud is bringing . 


The most powerful handheld gaming device is already in your hands and home , it is cloud based is genuinely hardware INDEPENDENT , forget about hippy terms like hardware neutral , and cross platform , it is called onlive , and check it out running THE most intensive maxed out games , that is you can run the highest res highest spec PC games , on the most humble Atom powered netbook , or your laptop , desktop , etc , or if you want to show Kaz a thing or two from your  tablet or Toshiba Libretto. The games running on onlive are not almost just sort of maybe look like PS3 graphics in your hands , but they are way beyond PS3 , they are at the level of the highest end gaming PC , many times the power of your PS3 . The games run instantly , no downloading no installs , no media to purchase , the community is alive click on a game and jump in . 


Onlive , Gaikai and whatever Microsoft and Apple eventually use to stream games independent of devices and hardware are the future , they not only make PC hardware upgrading obsolete but blow away the gimped 5 inch OLED hand held experience . 


And you know Sony and Nintendo will never let onlive onto their controlled platforms , it would destroy their restrictive , drip fed dictatorial game release model. 


You may be wowed by a little touchy feelie facsimile of a PS3 game on the NGP  , but wait till you start playing full high end AAA PC games , on top of the range hardware that would cost $4000 from your humble $200 netbook . 


So on with the show , and you know I have been going to and watching these shows since 1998 , and the thing is Sony and Nintendo seem to wheel out the same characters show after show , I mean should Snake not have grand clones/kids by now ?


 Watch and drink lots of coffee with CEO presentations like this from his competitors Mr Steve Jobs is not even going to raise one of his 50 billion dollar eyebrows....


here's uncle Kaz making his last stand at the battle of Little Big Horn courtesy of the Gamespot braves that were present...


and people if you think all this is far fetched ... Remember Sega? It took ages for them too....










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